Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
51% / 26% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.815 — 1.152
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sporting Kansas City 37% · Minnesota United FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 51.4% | 3.64 | 3.40 | -6.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
| Minnesota United FC | 22.7% | 2.09 | 1.95 | -6.6% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sporting Kansas City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sporting Kansas CityFair line (devig) — Sporting Kansas City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sporting Kansas City
LWWLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New York Red Bulls | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Austin FC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Portland Timbers | 0-6 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
Minnesota United FC
DLLDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | H v Real Salt Lake | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | A v New England Revolution | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Colorado Rapids | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Austin FC | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Columbus Crew | 3-2 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-03-16 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 3-3 | USA MLS |
| 2024-09-22 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 0-2 | USA MLS |
| 2024-06-02 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 3-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-04-28 | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-22 | Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United | 3-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.