Monterrey v Santos Laguna
Liga MX · Sun 19 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model probabilities
56% / 24% / 19%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.984 — 1.101
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Monterrey 42% · Santos Laguna 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 56.4% | 1.63 | 1.55 | -4.7% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 4.90 | 4.80 | -2.1% |
| Santos Laguna | 19.4% | 5.52 | 5.80 | +5% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.54 / 4.65 / 5.23 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Monterrey — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MonterreyFair line (devig) — Monterrey
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Monterrey
LWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Santos Laguna | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Pachuca | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Atlas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Atl. San Luis | 1-2 | L |
Santos Laguna
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | H v Monterrey | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Atl. San Luis | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Pachuca | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Club America | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-03-03 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 4-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-09-15 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-01-22 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-09 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.