Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
46% / 27% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Dalian Yingbo 32% · Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo | 45.8% | 2.25 | 2.15 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.92 | 3.90 | -0.6% |
| Shandong Luneng Taishan FC | 27.4% | 3.32 | 3.00 | -9.7% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.13 / 3.72 / 3.15 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Dalian Yingbo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Dalian YingboFair line (devig) — Dalian Yingbo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Dalian Yingbo
LWDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-19 | A v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-15 | H v Qingdao West Coast | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Qingdao Hainiu | 1-3 | L |
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.