SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel
BUN Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK · in 25d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SV Darmstadt 98 29% · Holstein Kiel 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 45.0% | 2.24 | 2.10 | -6.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.85 | 3.60 | -6.4% |
| Holstein Kiel | 26.1% | 3.41 | 3.20 | -6.2% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SV Darmstadt 98Fair line (devig) — SV Darmstadt 98
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SV Darmstadt 98
LLLLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | A v Borussia Dortmund | 0-4 | L |
| 2024-05-12 | H v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0-6 | L |
| 2024-05-04 | A v VfL Wolfsburg | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-04-28 | H v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-04-20 | A v 1. FC Köln | 2-0 | W |
Holstein Kiel
LLWWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | A v Dortmund | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-05-10 | H v Freiburg | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-05-04 | A v Augsburg | 3-1 | W |
| 2025-04-26 | H v M'gladbach | 4-3 | W |
| 2025-04-19 | A v RB Leipzig | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.