Racing Club v Gimnasia La Plata
Primera División - Argentina · Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Racing Club 25% · Gimnasia La Plata 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 43.3% | 1.91 | 1.83 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.51 | 3.25 | -7.4% |
| Gimnasia La Plata | 25.2% | 5.24 | 5.25 | +0.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.81 / 3.32 / 4.96 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Racing Club — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Racing ClubFair line (devig) — Racing Club
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Racing Club
DWDDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0.67
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 17% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | A v Rosario Central | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Estudiantes L.P. | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Huracan | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-25 | H v Barracas Central | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | A v Aldosivi | 1-1 | D |
Gimnasia La Plata
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.