Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK
Model probabilities
63% / 21% / 15%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
2.267 — 1.054
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
2-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Los Angeles FC 49% · Real Salt Lake 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 63.2% | 1.79 | 1.67 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Real Salt Lake | 15.3% | 4.83 | 4.50 | -6.8% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Los Angeles FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Los Angeles FCFair line (devig) — Los Angeles FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Los Angeles FC
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | A v Nashville SC | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v St. Louis City | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Houston Dynamo | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v San Diego FC | 2-2 | D |
Real Salt Lake
DWWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | A v Minnesota United | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Colorado Rapids | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Houston Dynamo | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v FC Dallas | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-09-18 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 1-4 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-18 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-02 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-02 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-14 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 0-3 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.