Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
19% / 26% / 56%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
0.978 — 1.83
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Qingdao West Coast FC 11% · Chengdu Rongcheng FC 40% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast FC | 18.5% | 4.44 | 4.20 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 4.10 | 3.90 | -4.8% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 55.8% | 1.88 | 1.75 | -7.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 4.19 / 3.87 / 1.78 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Chengdu Rongcheng FCFair line (devig) — Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Qingdao West Coast FC
DWDWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Yunnan Yukun | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Beijing Guoan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Dalian Yingbo | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Wuhan Three Towns | 1-1 | D |
Chengdu Rongcheng FC
WLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0.75
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Shandong Taishan | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Dalian Yingbo | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Shanghai Port | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Henan Songshan Longmen | 3-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 5-1 | China Super League |
| 2025-10-26 | Qingdao West Coast v Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-2 | China Super League |
| 2025-05-17 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-10-27 | Qingdao West Coast v Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-05-26 | Chengdu Rongcheng v Qingdao West Coast | 7-0 | China Super League |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.