FC St Gallen v FC Zurich
SS Sun 26 Jul, 15:30 UK · in 12d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC St Gallen 30% · FC Zurich 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St Gallen | 45.0% | 1.75 | 1.66 | -5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.42 | 4.40 | -0.6% |
| FC Zurich | 26.1% | 4.95 | 4.50 | -9.1% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.66 / 4.20 / 4.69 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC St Gallen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC St GallenFair line (devig) — FC St Gallen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC St Gallen
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Zurich
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.