Sport Recife v Operario PR
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
68% / 25% / 7%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sport Recife 44% · Operario PR 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 67.8% | 1.99 | 1.91 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.47 | 3.40 | -2.1% |
| Operario PR | 7.3% | 4.76 | 4.33 | -9.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.10 · Under: 1.81 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.88 / 3.27 / 4.49 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sport Recife — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sport RecifeFair line (devig) — Sport Recife
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sport Recife
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 2.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | H v Gremio | 0-4 | L |
| 2025-12-03 | A v Bahia | 0-2 | L |
| 2025-11-29 | A v Santos | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-11-23 | H v Vitoria | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-11-18 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-3 | L |
Operario PR
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.