Cambridge United v Barnet
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 13:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Cambridge United 31% · Barnet 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 46.5% | 1.98 | 1.90 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.68 | 3.60 | -2.1% |
| Barnet | 25.2% | 4.48 | 4.20 | -6.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.95 · Under: 1.77 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.85 / 3.44 / 4.19 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Cambridge United — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Cambridge UnitedFair line (devig) — Cambridge United
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Cambridge United
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cambridge City | 3-1 | W |
Barnet
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Hemel Hempstead Town | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.