Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Incheon United 30% · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 45.0% | 3.33 | 3.10 | -7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.36 | 3.15 | -6.1% |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 26.1% | 2.49 | 2.30 | -7.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.10 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.17 / 3.20 / 2.37 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Incheon United — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Incheon UnitedFair line (devig) — Incheon United
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Incheon United
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v FC Anyang | 0-1 | L |
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.