WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz
BUN Sat 1 Aug, 16:00 UK · in 18d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): WSG Tirol 29% · Sturm Graz 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSG Tirol | 45.0% | 3.75 | 3.40 | -9.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.83 | 3.50 | -8.7% |
| Sturm Graz | 26.1% | 2.12 | 2.02 | -4.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 3.56 / 3.64 / 2.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · WSG Tirol — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — WSG TirolFair line (devig) — WSG Tirol
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
WSG Tirol
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Sturm Graz
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.