HJK Helsinki v VPS Vaasa
Veikkausliiga - Finland · Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 29% / 29%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): HJK Helsinki 28% · VPS Vaasa 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 42.8% | 2.04 | 1.94 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.33 | 3.95 | -8.8% |
| VPS Vaasa | 28.6% | 3.58 | 3.65 | +1.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.30 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.94 / 4.11 / 3.41 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · HJK Helsinki — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HJK HelsinkiFair line (devig) — HJK Helsinki
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
HJK Helsinki
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Lahti | 0-2 | L |
VPS Vaasa
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.