IFK Värnamo v Ljungskile SK
SS Sun 19 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 5d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Värnamo 20% · Ljungskile SK 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Värnamo | 40.9% | 2.92 | 2.70 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.64 | 3.60 | -1% |
| Ljungskile SK | 23.0% | 2.60 | 2.60 | -0.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.75 / 3.42 / 2.45 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Värnamo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK VärnamoFair line (devig) — IFK Värnamo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Värnamo
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Naestved | 0-2 | L |
Ljungskile SK
LL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-09 | A v Gefle | 0-1 | L |
| 2014-11-06 | H v Gefle | 1-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.