Botafogo v Santos
Brazil Série A · Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
49% / 29% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Botafogo 32% · Santos 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 48.9% | 2.14 | 2.06 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.82 | 3.65 | -4.4% |
| Santos | 22.4% | 3.70 | 3.95 | +6.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.87 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.04 / 3.64 / 3.53 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Botafogo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BotafogoFair line (devig) — Botafogo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Botafogo
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Santos
WWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Vitoria | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v EC Vitória | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Gremio | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Coritiba FBC | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.