Querétaro v América
Liga MX · Sun 19 Jul, 04:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Querétaro 31% · América 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Querétaro | 45.4% | 3.94 | 3.70 | -6% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.73 | 3.60 | -3.5% |
| América | 26.4% | 2.09 | 2.02 | -3.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.75 / 3.55 / 1.99 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Querétaro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — QuerétaroFair line (devig) — Querétaro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Querétaro
WDDWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | A v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Cruz Azul | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Mazatlan FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | H v Necaxa | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-04-08 | H v Juarez | 1-1 | D |
América
LWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-06 | A v Goiás EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-12-03 | H v EC Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2023-11-30 | A v SE Palmeiras | 0-4 | L |
| 2023-11-26 | H v CR Flamengo | 0-3 | L |
| 2023-11-12 | A v CR Vasco da Gama | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.