Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sheffield Wednesday 31% · Bolton Wanderers 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday | 46.5% | 3.68 | 3.40 | -7.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.64 | 3.60 | -1% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 25.2% | 2.21 | 2.17 | -1.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.44 / 3.41 / 2.07 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sheffield Wednesday — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sheffield WednesdayFair line (devig) — Sheffield Wednesday
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sheffield Wednesday
LWDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v West Brom | 0-3 | L |
| 2000-05-14 | H v Leicester | 4-0 | W |
| 2000-05-09 | A v Arsenal | 3-3 | D |
| 2000-05-06 | A v Coventry | 1-4 | L |
| 2000-04-30 | H v Leeds | 0-3 | L |
Bolton Wanderers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.