Atlante FC v América
LM Sat 25 Jul, 04:00 UK · in 11d
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlante FC 32% · América 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 45.4% | 4.63 | 4.20 | -9.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.97 | 3.60 | -9.3% |
| América | 26.4% | 1.88 | 1.70 | -9.4% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlante FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlante FCFair line (devig) — Atlante FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlante FC
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-27 | A v Chiapas | 2-5 | L |
| 2014-04-20 | H v Club Tijuana | 1-2 | L |
| 2014-04-14 | A v Santos Laguna | 3-4 | L |
| 2014-04-06 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-2 | L |
| 2014-03-30 | A v Monterrey | 2-3 | L |
América
LWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-06 | A v Goiás EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-12-03 | H v EC Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2023-11-30 | A v SE Palmeiras | 0-4 | L |
| 2023-11-26 | H v CR Flamengo | 0-3 | L |
| 2023-11-12 | A v CR Vasco da Gama | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.