England v Argentina
FIFA World Cup · Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK
Model probabilities
50% / 29% / 21%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 0.882
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): England 32% · Argentina 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 50.2% | 2.81 | 2.78 | -1% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 3.02 | 3.00 | -0.7% |
| Argentina | 20.5% | 3.19 | 3.20 | +0.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.44 · Under: 1.68 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.72 / 2.92 / 3.09 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · England — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — EnglandFair line (devig) — England
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
England
WWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Norway | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-07-06 | A v Mexico | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | H v Congo DR | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-06-27 | A v Panama | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-06-23 | H v Ghana | 0-0 | D |
Argentina
WWWWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 0.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 58%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 58%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Switzerland | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-07-07 | H v Egypt | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-07-03 | H v Cape Verde Islands | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-06-28 | A v Jordan | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-06-22 | H v Austria | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-11-12 | England v Argentina | 3-2 | International |
| 2002-06-07 | Argentina v England | 0-1 | International |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.