Internacional v Cruzeiro
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
46% / 31% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.372 — 0.899
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Internacional 28% · Cruzeiro 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 46.2% | 2.36 | 2.28 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 30.9% | 3.46 | 3.40 | -1.7% |
| Cruzeiro | 23.0% | 3.48 | 3.35 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.08 · Under: 1.73 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.25 / 3.30 / 3.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Internacional — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — InternacionalFair line (devig) — Internacional
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Internacional
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Bragantino | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Vitoria | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Vasco | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Coritiba | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Fluminense | 2-0 | W |
Cruzeiro
DWWWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | H v Fluminense | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Barcelona SC | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chapecoense AF | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chapecoense-SC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | A v CA Boca Juniors | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-06 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-08-28 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-08-25 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-11-05 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-07-02 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.