Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley
EFL Cup · Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Crewe Alexandra 31% · Accrington Stanley 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe Alexandra | 46.5% | 1.93 | 1.85 | -4% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.89 | 3.70 | -4.9% |
| Accrington Stanley | 25.2% | 4.46 | 4.10 | -8.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.76 · Under: 1.96 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.80 / 3.63 / 4.17 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Crewe Alexandra — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Crewe AlexandraFair line (devig) — Crewe Alexandra
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Crewe Alexandra
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Accrington Stanley
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.