SC Cambuur v Excelsior
ERE Fri 7 Aug, 19:00 UK · in 24d
Model probabilities
46% / 26% / 29%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.774 — 1.375
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SC Cambuur 34% · Excelsior 20% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur | 45.5% | 2.65 | 2.50 | -5.7% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.85 | 3.70 | -3.8% |
| Excelsior | 28.6% | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.62 · Under: 2.28 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.53 / 3.67 / 2.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SC Cambuur — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SC CambuurFair line (devig) — SC Cambuur
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SC Cambuur
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Excelsior
WLWLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Dordrecht | 2-0 | W |
| 2024-05-19 | A v Feyenoord | 0-4 | L |
| 2024-05-12 | H v Heracles | 4-0 | W |
| 2024-05-06 | H v Nijmegen | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-04-24 | A v Ajax | 2-2 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.