Belgrano de Cordoba v Rosario Central
Primera División - Argentina · Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
43% / 32% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Belgrano de Cordoba 26% · Rosario Central 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrano de Cordoba | 43.3% | 2.65 | 2.45 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.94 | 2.90 | -1.4% |
| Rosario Central | 25.2% | 3.55 | 3.10 | -12.6% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.52 / 2.80 / 3.38 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Belgrano de Cordoba — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Belgrano de CordobaFair line (devig) — Belgrano de Cordoba
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Belgrano de Cordoba
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Rosario Central
LDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | A v River Plate | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-13 | H v Racing Club | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Independiente | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Tigre | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.