Portland Timbers v FC Dallas
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK
Model probabilities
49% / 26% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.753 — 1.211
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Portland Timbers 35% · FC Dallas 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 48.6% | 2.41 | 2.25 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -6.5% |
| FC Dallas | 25.0% | 2.95 | 2.75 | -6.8% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Portland Timbers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Portland TimbersFair line (devig) — Portland Timbers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Portland Timbers
LLDWLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Inter Miami | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v CF Montreal | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 6-0 | W |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Real Salt Lake | 0-2 | L |
FC Dallas
WWLWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v Colorado Rapids | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Real Salt Lake | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-10-07 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-05 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 3-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-06-12 | Portland Timbers v FC Dallas | 1-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-04-02 | FC Dallas v Portland Timbers | 1-1 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.