IK Oddevold v Varbergs BoIS
SS Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IK Oddevold 20% · Varbergs BoIS 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Oddevold | 40.9% | 2.42 | 2.34 | -3.4% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.68 | 3.50 | -4.8% |
| Varbergs BoIS | 23.0% | 3.16 | 2.90 | -8.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.73 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.28 / 3.46 / 2.98 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IK Oddevold — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IK OddevoldFair line (devig) — IK Oddevold
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IK Oddevold
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Varbergs BoIS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Norrby IF | 4-2 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.