IFK Norrkoping v Sandvikens IF
Superettan - Sweden · Sun 19 Jul, 12:00 UK
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Norrkoping 20% · Sandvikens IF 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping | 40.9% | 1.64 | 1.57 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.81 | 4.50 | -6.4% |
| Sandvikens IF | 23.0% | 5.43 | 5.50 | +1.2% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.54 / 4.49 / 5.09 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Norrkoping — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK NorrkopingFair line (devig) — IFK Norrkoping
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Norrkoping
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Sandvikens IF
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.