Mirassol v Grêmio
Brazil Série A · Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 UK
Model probabilities
54% / 27% / 19%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.74 — 0.959
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mirassol 37% · Grêmio 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 54.2% | 2.07 | 2.06 | -0.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 3.58 | 3.40 | -5.1% |
| Grêmio | 19.2% | 4.22 | 4.20 | -0.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.15 · Under: 1.68 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.97 / 3.41 / 4.01 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Mirassol — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MirassolFair line (devig) — Mirassol
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Mirassol
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v CA Paranaense | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-26 | A v CA Lanús | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Fluminense FC | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Fluminense | 1-0 | W |
Grêmio
LWDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Corinthians | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Santos | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-0 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Gremio v Mirassol | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-16 | Mirassol v Gremio | 4-1 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.