IK Start v Rosenborg
EN Sat 18 Jul, 15:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
48% / 26% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IK Start 36% · Rosenborg 17% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Start | 48.3% | 3.23 | 3.10 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.73 | 3.60 | -3.5% |
| Rosenborg | 25.7% | 2.37 | 2.30 | -2.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 3.07 / 3.56 / 2.26 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IK Start — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IK StartFair line (devig) — IK Start
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IK Start
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Rosenborg
WDLLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Kristiansund BK | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Bodo/Glimt | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | A v KFUM Oslo | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Aalesund | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Lillestrom | 2-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.