Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA
CS Tue 21 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 8d
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nacional de Montevideo 32% · CA Tigre BA 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional de Montevideo | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.04 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.56 | 3.30 | -7.3% |
| CA Tigre BA | 25.2% | 3.95 | 3.80 | -3.9% |
Sharp reference (raw): 2.01 / 3.33 / 3.70 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nacional de Montevideo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nacional de MontevideoFair line (devig) — Nacional de Montevideo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nacional de Montevideo
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
CA Tigre BA
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.