Östersunds FK v Landskrona BoIS
SS Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Östersunds FK 20% · Landskrona BoIS 10% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Östersunds FK | 40.9% | 2.17 | 2.10 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 3.70 | 3.60 | -2.8% |
| Landskrona BoIS | 23.0% | 3.73 | 3.40 | -8.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.04 / 3.48 / 3.51 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Östersunds FK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Östersunds FKFair line (devig) — Östersunds FK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Östersunds FK
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Orebro SK | 2-4 | L |
| 2021-12-04 | H v Degerfors | 0-1 | L |
| 2021-11-28 | A v Goteborg | 0-4 | L |
| 2021-11-22 | H v Mjallby | 0-2 | L |
| 2021-11-07 | A v AIK | 0-3 | L |
Landskrona BoIS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Falkenbergs FF | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.