Bahia v Chapecoense
Brazil Série A · Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
47% / 29% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.492 — 0.982
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bahia 31% · Chapecoense 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 47.4% | 1.51 | 1.45 | -4.2% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 5.15 | 4.80 | -6.9% |
| Chapecoense | 23.3% | 6.90 | 7.50 | +8.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.38 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.44 / 4.91 / 6.55 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bahia — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BahiaFair line (devig) — Bahia
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bahia
LWLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-26 | A v Coritiba | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Gremio | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | L |
Chapecoense
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.