HamKam v Tromso
Eliteserien - Norway · Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 27%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.54 — 1.146
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): HamKam 30% · Tromso 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam | 44.8% | 3.85 | 3.45 | -10.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 3.25 | 3.40 | +4.7% |
| Tromso | 26.8% | 2.32 | 2.15 | -7.3% |
Sharp reference (raw): 3.66 / 3.09 / 2.21 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · HamKam — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HamKamFair line (devig) — HamKam
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
HamKam
DWLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | A v Aalesund | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Lillestrom | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Fredrikstad | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-08 | H v Valerenga | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Kristiansund | 1-1 | D |
Tromso
WDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 58%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 58%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Valerenga | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | A v KFUM Oslo | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Aalesund | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Bodo/Glimt | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Molde | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | Tromso v HamKam | 1-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2025-06-22 | HamKam v Tromso | 1-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-03 | Tromso v HamKam | 3-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-07-07 | HamKam v Tromso | 0-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-17 | Tromso v HamKam | 2-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.