Lanus v Club Cienciano
CS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 9d
Model probabilities
47% / 28% / 25%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lanus 31% · Club Cienciano 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 46.5% | 1.49 | 1.40 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.95 | 4.65 | -6.1% |
| Club Cienciano | 25.2% | 7.87 | 7.50 | -4.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 1.97 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.38 / 4.60 / 7.32 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lanus — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LanusFair line (devig) — Lanus
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lanus
LDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Dep. Riestra | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Central Cordoba | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-21 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Banfield | 1-0 | W |
Club Cienciano
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.