IFK Mariehamn v FC Lahti
VF Mon 20 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 6d
Model probabilities
43% / 29% / 29%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 1.193
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Mariehamn 28% · FC Lahti 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Mariehamn | 42.8% | 5.65 | 5.25 | -7.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.65 | 4.20 | -9.7% |
| FC Lahti | 28.6% | 1.64 | 1.56 | -5.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.37 / 4.41 / 1.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Mariehamn — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK MariehamnFair line (devig) — IFK Mariehamn
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Mariehamn
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Lahti
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.