Santos Laguna v Atlas
Liga MX · Sun 26 Jul, 04:00 UK
Model probabilities
51% / 27% / 22%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.707 — 1.042
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Santos Laguna 35% · Atlas 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 51.4% | 2.43 | 2.20 | -9.4% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 3.64 | 3.30 | -9.3% |
| Atlas | 21.6% | 3.19 | 2.90 | -9.2% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Santos Laguna — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Santos LagunaFair line (devig) — Santos Laguna
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Santos Laguna
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | H v Monterrey | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Atl. San Luis | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Pachuca | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Club America | 1-1 | D |
Atlas
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Cruz Azul | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Club America | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 2-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-02-23 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 2-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-07-17 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-02-05 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-07-14 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 0-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.