Östers IF v IK Brage
SS Sat 18 Jul, 16:00 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
41% / 36% / 23%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.04 — 0.714
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
0-0
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Östers IF 20% · IK Brage 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Östers IF | 40.9% | 2.25 | 2.14 | -5% |
| Draw | 36.1% | 4.12 | 4.00 | -2.8% |
| IK Brage | 23.0% | 3.21 | 3.20 | -0.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.48 · Under: 2.50 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.12 / 3.87 / 3.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Östers IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Östers IFFair line (devig) — Östers IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Östers IF
DDDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-11-03 | H v Djurgarden | 1-1 | D |
| 2013-10-28 | A v Norrkoping | 1-1 | D |
| 2013-10-20 | A v Goteborg | 0-0 | D |
| 2013-10-06 | H v Gefle | 1-4 | L |
| 2013-09-30 | A v AIK | 1-2 | L |
IK Brage
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.