Halmstads BK v BK Hacken
Allsvenskan - Sweden · Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 28%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Halmstads BK 31% · BK Hacken 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstads BK | 44.9% | 5.49 | 5.60 | +1.9% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 5.03 | 4.70 | -6.5% |
| BK Hacken | 27.7% | 1.62 | 1.56 | -3.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.56 · Under: 2.40 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.16 / 4.72 / 1.52 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Halmstads BK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Halmstads BKFair line (devig) — Halmstads BK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Halmstads BK
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
BK Hacken
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 4
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Orgryte IS | 3-4 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.