Atletico Mineiro v Bahia
Brazil Série A · Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK
Model probabilities
60% / 25% / 16%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.892 — 0.879
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atletico Mineiro 43% · Bahia 9% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 59.7% | 2.22 | 2.10 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.1% |
| Bahia | 15.6% | 3.79 | 3.60 | -5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.02 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.12 / 3.33 / 3.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atletico Mineiro — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atletico MineiroFair line (devig) — Atletico Mineiro
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atletico Mineiro
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Vasco | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Corinthians | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Mirassol | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Botafogo RJ | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Cruzeiro | 3-1 | W |
Bahia
LWLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Fluminense | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-26 | A v Coritiba | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Gremio | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Cruzeiro | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-13 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-15 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-06-02 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 1-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-12-07 | Bahia v Atletico-MG | 4-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-08-13 | Atletico-MG v Bahia | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.