Pumas v Pachuca
Liga MX · Sun 19 Jul, 00:00 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 28% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Pumas 30% · Pachuca 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas | 45.4% | 2.42 | 2.30 | -4.8% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.62 | 3.60 | -0.6% |
| Pachuca | 26.4% | 3.24 | 3.05 | -5.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.07 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.30 / 3.45 / 3.08 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Pumas — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — PumasFair line (devig) — Pumas
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Pumas
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Pachuca
LWWWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | A v UNAM Pumas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v UNAM Pumas | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Toluca | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-04 | A v Toluca | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-26 | H v UNAM Pumas | 0-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.