Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC
KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 4d
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Gangwon FC 29% · Sangju Sangmu FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 45.0% | 1.92 | 1.85 | -3.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.82 | 3.50 | -8.3% |
| Sangju Sangmu FC | 26.1% | 4.59 | 4.10 | -10.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.00 · Under: 1.80 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.83 / 3.63 / 4.36 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Gangwon FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Gangwon FCFair line (devig) — Gangwon FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Gangwon FC
LD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | A v Vietnam | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-07-12 | A v FC Seoul | 0-0 | D |
Sangju Sangmu FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.