Hibernian v Motherwell
Premiership - Scotland · Sun 2 Aug, 16:30 UK
Model probabilities
45% / 29% / 26%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · sharp)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Hibernian 29% · Motherwell 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 45.0% | 2.40 | 2.30 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.57 | 3.60 | +0.8% |
| Motherwell | 26.1% | 3.29 | 3.15 | -4.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.29 / 3.40 / 3.14 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Hibernian — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HibernianFair line (devig) — Hibernian
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Hibernian
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Motherwell
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.