Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC
MLS · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model probabilities
35% / 30% / 36%
home / draw / away — uncertainty included by design
Expected goals (λ)
1.286 — 1.31
Dixon-Coles attack/defence
Engine score — process gate
—
ranks independent agreement, never certainty
Most likely score
1-1
modal scoreline — single most likely, still unlikely in absolute terms
Model view
Market view (fair, devigged · consensus)
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Austin FC 22% · Seattle Sounders FC 22% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 34.6% | 3.52 | 3.30 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 3.85 | 3.60 | -6.4% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 35.7% | 2.19 | 2.05 | -6.5% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Seattle Sounders FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Seattle Sounders FCFair line (devig) — Seattle Sounders FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Austin FC
LLLDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | A v St. Louis City | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Sporting Kansas City | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v San Diego FC | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | A v Minnesota United | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v St. Louis City | 2-0 | W |
Seattle Sounders FC
LLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | A v Los Angeles FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | H v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v San Diego FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 2-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-06-29 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-14 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-03 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 0-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-08-31 | Austin FC v Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-18 | Seattle Sounders v Austin FC | 1-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.