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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only UEFA Champions League Qualification (14 fixtures)
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UEFA Champions League QualificationTue 14 Jul, 18:00
EFG ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík VR
+0%
edge vs fair
45%
model probability
1X2 — ETO FC Győr · best 1.80
no edge
UEFA Champions League QualificationTue 14 Jul, 18:30
PLS PFC Levski Sofia v FK Borac Banja Luka FBB
-0.7%
edge vs fair
45%
model probability
1X2 — PFC Levski Sofia · best 1.35
no edge
UEFA Champions League QualificationTue 14 Jul, 17:00
FI1 FC Iberia 1999 v FC Flora FF
-1.1%
edge vs fair
45%
model probability
1X2 — FC Iberia 1999 · best 1.63
no edge
Match intelligence
ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík
UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tue 14 Jul, 18:00 UK
Model lean — 1X2
ETO FC Győr
45%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
1.80
fair odds
1.80
best price
-0.1%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · consensus)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.508 — 1.1
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 11 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 11 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETO FC Győr | 45.0% | 1.80 | 1.80 | -0.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.61 | 4.60 | -0.2% |
| Víkingur Reykjavík | 26.1% | 4.41 | 4.40 | -0.1% |
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
ETO FC Győr
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Víkingur Reykjavík
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 14 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS Kuopio v FK Vardar
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 16:00 | KuPS Kuopio 45% | 1.65 / 4.57 / 5.68
consensus, devigged |
1.63 / 4.50 / 5.60 | -1.4% KuPS Kuopio |
— | |
| FC Iberia 1999 v FC Flora
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 17:00 | FC Iberia 1999 45% | 1.65 / 4.76 / 5.46
consensus, devigged |
1.63 / 4.70 / 5.40 | -1.1% FC Iberia 1999 |
— | |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes v Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 17:00 | Inter Club d'Escaldes 45% | 1.79 / 4.59 / 4.48
consensus, devigged |
1.76 / 4.50 / 4.40 | -1.7% Inter Club d'Escaldes |
— | |
| ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:00 | ETO FC Győr 45% | 1.80 / 4.61 / 4.41
consensus, devigged |
1.80 / 4.60 / 4.40 | 0% ETO FC Győr |
— | |
| Riga FC v FC Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:00 | Riga FC 45% | 1.85 / 3.95 / 4.88
consensus, devigged |
1.82 / 3.90 / 4.80 | -1.4% Riga FC |
— | |
| PFC Levski Sofia v FK Borac Banja Luka
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:30 | PFC Levski Sofia 45% | 1.36 / 5.24 / 13.51
consensus, devigged |
1.35 / 5.20 / 13.50 | -0.7% PFC Levski Sofia |
— | |
| The New Saints FC v Sabah FK
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 18:30 | The New Saints FC 45% | 5.68 / 4.57 / 1.65
consensus, devigged |
5.60 / 4.50 / 1.63 | -1.4% The New Saints FC |
— | |
| FC Drita v FK Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 19:00 | FC Drita 45% | 2.53 / 3.47 / 3.16
consensus, devigged |
2.48 / 3.40 / 3.10 | -2% FC Drita |
— | |
| Shamrock Rovers v Floriana F.C.
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 | Shamrock Rovers 45% | 1.34 / 5.85 / 11.76
consensus, devigged |
1.31 / 5.70 / 11.50 | -2.5% Shamrock Rovers |
— | |
| Larne FC v Tre Fiori F.C.
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 | Larne FC 45% | 1.19 / 8.93 / 22.22
consensus, devigged |
1.17 / 8.80 / 22.00 | -1.4% Larne FC |
— | |
| Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Wed 15 Jul, 18:30 | Universitatea Craiova 45% | 1.33 / 6.10 / 12.20
consensus, devigged |
1.31 / 6.00 / 12.00 | -1.3% Universitatea Craiova |
— | |
| FC Atert Bissen v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag
UEFA Champions League Qualification |
Wed 15 Jul, 19:15 | FC Atert Bissen 45% | 2.88 / 3.79 / 2.57
consensus, devigged |
2.85 / 3.75 / 2.54 | -1.1% FC Atert Bissen |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · ETO FC Győr ETO FC Győr v Víkingur Reykjavík |
1.80 | 1.80 | 0% | — |
| 1X2 · PFC Levski Sofia PFC Levski Sofia v FK Borac Banja Luka |
1.35 | 1.36 | -0.7% | — |
| 1X2 · FC Iberia 1999 FC Iberia 1999 v FC Flora |
1.63 | 1.65 | -1.1% | — |
| 1X2 · FC Atert Bissen FC Atert Bissen v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag |
2.85 | 2.88 | -1.1% | — |
| 1X2 · Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk |
1.31 | 1.33 | -1.3% | — |
| 1X2 · KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio v FK Vardar |
1.63 | 1.65 | -1.4% | — |
| 1X2 · Riga FC Riga FC v FC Ararat-Armenia |
1.82 | 1.85 | -1.4% | — |
Odds movement
1X2 · ETO FC Győr — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ETO FC GyőrFair line (devig) — ETO FC Győr
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
Data-driven
A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
AI-assisted, bounded
Grounded AI briefs explain the numbers and flag risks. Models never invent a price or a probability — the statistical engine and the market own the numbers.
Market-focused
Every idea is compared against the sharp line and devigged fair odds — value is measured, not asserted.
Logged & graded
Every prediction is timestamped and graded against the closing line. Wins and losses stay on the page.
Built for analysts
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Always improving
The model retrains on every finished match, and weak signals get demoted by evidence — not by opinion.