Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk
1X2 · Club BruggeModel behind market recent
Market
1.30
price
76.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.40
fair price
71.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 71%model 45%
Model divergence -26.2 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
7 books priced
Model · 1X2
Club Brugge
45%
Draw
29%
KV Kortrijk
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 71% / 19% / 10%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Club Brugge 45% against the market’s fair 71% — a -26.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Club Brugge 30% · KV Kortrijk 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 45.0% | 1.40 | 1.30 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.41 | 5.00 | -7.5% |
| KV Kortrijk | 26.1% | 9.71 | 9.00 | -7.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Club Brugge | Draw | KV Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.24 | 4.70 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Club Brugge — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Club BruggeFair line (devig) — Club Brugge
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Club Brugge
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
KV Kortrijk
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Frequently asked questions
When do Club Brugge play KV Kortrijk?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK time in the Belgium First Div.
What does the model expect for Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk?
The statistical model prices Club Brugge at 45%, the draw at 29% and KV Kortrijk at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.40 / 5.41 / 9.71 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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