England v Argentina 
FWC1X2 · EnglandEfficiently priced recent
Market
2.82
price
35.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.81
fair price
35.6%
fair prob
Our model
1.99
model fair price
50.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 50%
Model divergence +14.6 pts
Edge vs fair +0.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
England
50%
Draw
29%
Argentina
21%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 34% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.504 — 0.882
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices England 50% against the market’s fair 36% — a +14.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.504–0.882 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): England 32% · Argentina 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 50.2% | 2.81 | 2.82 | +0.4% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 2.99 | 3.00 | +0.5% |
| Argentina | 20.5% | 3.24 | 3.20 | -1.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.58 · Under: 1.62 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | England | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.95 |
| Casumo | 2.70 | 2.85 | 3.00 |
| Grosvenor | 2.63 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.95 |
| LeoVegas | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Smarkets | 2.82 | 2.98 | 3.15 |
| Coral | 2.62 | 2.87 | 3.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.62 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.75 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.72 / 2.89 / 3.13 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · England — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — EnglandFair line (devig) — England
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
EnglandWWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0.83
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Norway | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-07-06 | A v Mexico | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-07-01 | H v Congo DR | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-06-27 | A v Panama | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-06-23 | H v Ghana | 0-0 | D |
ArgentinaWWWWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 0.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 58%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 58%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Switzerland | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-07-07 | H v Egypt | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-07-03 | H v Cape Verde Islands | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-06-28 | A v Jordan | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-06-22 | H v Austria | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-11-12 | England v Argentina | 3-2 | International |
| 2002-06-07 | Argentina v England | 0-1 | International |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Frequently asked questions
When do England play Argentina?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the FIFA World Cup.
What does the model expect for England v Argentina?
The statistical model prices England at 50%, the draw at 29% and Argentina at 21%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for England v Argentina?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.81 / 2.99 / 3.24 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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