SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight UEFA Nations League
Join free channel

UEFA Nations League

World54 teamsLeague A - 5UNL
Next match Turkey v Belgium Thu 12 Nov, 17:00

1 UEFA Nations League fixture on the current market snapshot. Model probabilities are shown beside the real prices they were compared against, and every published call for this competition is in the graded ledger below.

1 Upcoming
Model Strength
Not enough data
the engine has scored 0 fixture(s) here; 3 are needed
Market Efficiency
Not enough data
a complete three-way price is held for 1 fixture(s); 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here; 3 are needed
ROI · published
-16.1%
12 settled
Fixtures Analysed
104
Held

Model vs market

by month
Model win % Market implied %
Model against market over 3 months 42.5% 45% AugSepOct
Mean model and devigged market probability on the home win, by month, over 1354 stored fixtures — 3 months carry a model sample, 3 a complete three-way price. A month below the sample floor is a gap, never a line drawn through it.

Market movers

recorded moves
1 England Croatia Croatia1X2 17.00 → 12.50 -26.5%Shortening 2 Czech Republic Spain Draw1X2 7.50 → 9.00 +20.0%Drifting 3 Serbia Germany Serbia1X2 10.00 → 11.00 +10.0%Drifting 4 Norway Wales Wales1X2 11.00 → 12.00 +9.1%Drifting 5 Portugal Denmark Denmark1X2 8.00 → 7.50 -6.2%Shortening
View all fixtures →

Key league stats

per game · 2026/27
2.46
▼ -0.6
Goals per match
over 104 match · vs all competitions
12.56
▼ -1.1
Shots per team
over 34 team per match · vs all competitions
3.82
▼ -1.0
On target per team
over 34 team per match · vs all competitions
—
xG per team
match statistics are stored for 17 of 104 finished fixtures
50%
▼ -7.7%
Over 2.5 goals
over 104 match · vs all competitions
46.2%
▼ -8.6%
Both teams score
over 104 match · vs all competitions

Model vs market

this competition
Not enough priced fixtures to compare
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

Top teams

model edge
No club has a model edge on this board
the model has priced too few fixtures in this competition
View all teams →

Latest insights

from the stored data
Goals trend50% of the 104 finished fixtures stored for this competition went over 2.5 goals.
Home advantageThe home side has won 37.5% of the 104 finished fixtures stored here, and 26.9% were drawn.
1
Upcoming
on the snapshot
2.92
Goals / match
last 12 results
50%
BTTS
6 of 12
75%
Over 2.5
9 of 12

Upcoming fixtures

Upcoming season fixtures
  1. Thu 12 Nov17:00in 13d
    Turkey crestTurkey Belgium crestBelgium
    League A - 5
    not modelled
    model building
    —

League table

No league table for this tie UEFA Nations League is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.

Teams this season (2)

Belgium crestBelgiumTurkey crestTurkey

Graded calls — from the public ledger

PostedMatchSelectionPosted → closeCLVResult
2026-10-06 Estonia v Iceland Iceland to Win 1.64 → 1.66 -1.2% ✕ LOSS
2026-10-05 Montenegro v Armenia Over 2.5 Goals 1.74 → 1.68 +3.6% ✕ LOSS
2026-10-04 Greece v Germany Over 2.5 Goals 1.62 → 1.62 0% ✕ LOSS
2026-10-04 Portugal v Norway Portugal to Win 1.68 → 1.72 -2.3% ✓ WIN
2026-10-02 Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden Over 2.5 Goals 1.71 → 1.57 +8.9% ✕ LOSS
2026-10-02 Belgium v Turkey Belgium to Win 1.56 → 1.51 +3.3% ✓ WIN
2026-10-01 Greece v Netherlands Netherlands to Win 2.10 → 2.30 -8.7% ✕ LOSS
2026-09-29 Slovenia v North Macedonia Slovenia to Win 1.70 → 1.46 +16.4% ✓ WIN
2026-09-29 Finland v Belarus Finland to Win 1.63 → 1.55 +5.2% ✕ LOSS
2026-09-28 Sweden v Poland Over 2.5 Goals 1.70 → 1.63 +4.3% ✓ WIN
2026-09-28 Belgium v France France to Win 1.97 → 2.22 -11.3% ✓ WIN
2026-09-27 Denmark v Wales Denmark to Win 1.46 → 1.42 +2.8% ✓ WIN
Every call is timestamped and graded against the closing line, win or lose — the full ledger is on the track record.
League data: fresh · collected 4 h ago

Explore

Frequently asked questions

Which UEFA Nations League fixtures are coming up?
1 UEFA Nations League fixture is in the current snapshot, starting with Turkey v Belgium on Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 UK time.