Atletico Mineiro v Chapecoense — Brazil Série A prediction, odds and analysis
BSA·Regular Season - 28·Sat 19 Sept, 20:00 UK·MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte· 25.8°C · 5.1 kph wind · 0.1 mm rain
At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Atletico MineirovChapecoense
Sat 19 Sept, 20:00Atletico Mineiro1.43Casumo
Draw4.50LeoVegas
Chapecoense7.50888sport
Best captured price per outcome · 12 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: MRV Arena, Belo HorizonteKickoff weather: 25.8°C · rain 0.1 mm · wind 5.1 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLLWWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.17 / 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | at Santos (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-09 | at Santos (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | at Sao Paulo (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-02 | vs Cruzeiro (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Vitoria (H) | 2-1 | W |
WLWDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1 / 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | at Corinthians (A) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | at Gremio (A) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Sao Paulo (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-16 | vs Bahia (H) | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-08-08 | at Coritiba (A) | 1-2 | L |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Léo Vieira Goalkeeper |
7 | 642 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.3 |
 Anderson Goalkeeper |
2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | 2Y | 8.1 |
 Camilo Midfielder |
2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 6.6 |
 Doma Defender |
2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 Bruno Pacheco Midfielder |
2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 7.0 |
League standings
No stored table rows for either side yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected. no standings rows held for either side.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Atletico Mineiro 2 wins2 drawsChapecoense 2avg 2.7 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Chapecoense-SC v Atletico-MG | 0-4 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-10-06 | Chapecoense-SC v Atletico-MG | 2-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-06-22 | Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-SC | 1-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2019-10-30 | Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-SC | 0-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2019-07-14 | Chapecoense-SC v Atletico-MG | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2018-10-06 | Chapecoense-SC v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 8 Sept, 07:07
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Coritiba v Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba v Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Mineiro v FluminenseGrêmio v Vasco da GamaAtletico Mineiro v FluminenseGrêmio v Vasco da Gama
Frequently asked questions
When do Atletico Mineiro play Chapecoense?
Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.