The model’s probability for each outcome beside the market’s devigged fair probability.
Data unavailable
The model has not produced a read for this fixture, so no comparison is drawn.
Outcome
Model prob
Fair odds
Best price
Edge vs fair
Newells Old Boys
—
—
3.05
—
Draw
—
—
3.00
—
Velez Sarsfield BA
—
—
2.86
—
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
Bookmaker
Newells Old Boys
Draw
Velez Sarsfield BA
Smarkets
3.05BEST
2.98
2.86BEST
Betfair
3.00
3.00BEST
2.86BEST
Virgin Bet
2.95
2.70
2.43
LiveScore Bet
2.90
2.70
2.40
Betway
2.88
2.88
2.70
BoyleSports
2.80
2.90
2.60
Ladbrokes
2.80
2.90
2.75
Betfair Sportsbook
2.75
3.00BEST
2.63
Paddy Power
2.70
2.90
2.62
Sky Bet
2.63
2.88
2.50
Betfred (UK)
2.62
3.00BEST
2.62
11 bookmakers · real captured prices · prices observed 12 h ago · BEST marks the market-best price for each outcome. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.962.932.79 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Recorded price movement
Recorded price movement
1X2 · Newells Old Boys — best available price against the devigged fair line.
Metric Decimal oddsSample 7Source recorded odds snapshots
Best price — Newells Old Boys
Early sample — interpret cautiously (fewer than 30 settled results).
Every point is a real recorded observation. The line steps because a price holds until it is next seen to change — a sloped line would draw prices that were never observed. A break in the line is a period with no observations, not a flat one.
Best price — Newells Old Boys: 7 observations, 2.50 → 3.05
Show the numbers
Observed
Series
Price
1 Sept, 07:08
Best price — Newells Old Boys
2.50
10 Sept, 07:07
Best price — Newells Old Boys
2.94
11 Sept, 07:03
Best price — Newells Old Boys
3.05
2 Sept, 05:56
Best price — Newells Old Boys
2.90
3 Sept, 06:49
Best price — Newells Old Boys
2.88
7 Sept, 07:03
Best price — Newells Old Boys
3.05
9 Sept, 07:21
Best price — Newells Old Boys
2.95
More about this fixture
other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
A free account unlocks:
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.
PDA