Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Al-Nassr — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming6 Results held
Model Strength
73
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
95.3%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
8th
of 15 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
6
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Betfair ExchangeForm
last 6WLWWWW
15 pts from 6
H
Abha
2–1
+1.8
A
Al-Ittihad FC
1–2
-1.7
H
Al Taawon
2–1
—
A
Al-Ettifaq
3–2
—
A
Al Riyadh
4–0
+1.8
H
Al-Fateh
3–0
—
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (6 matches)
Model expected (5 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+10.8 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
2.5
#2 of 18
Points over model expectation
10.8
#4 of 15
Weaknesses
Clean sheets
2
#13 of 18
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
2.5
#2 of 18
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1
#7 of 18
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
2
#13 of 18
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed38%
Scored before half time
of 8 goals
25%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 8 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 8 goals
17%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 6 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures
(14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
SPL
No league table for this tie
Saudi Pro League is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely
Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Home ground: KSU Stadium gazetteer
Recorded form
WWLWWW
last 12: 2.17 scored / 1.33 conceded per game · Over 2.5 83% · BTTS 67% · clean sheets 25% (12 results held)
H Abha 2-1 W · H Abha Club 2-1 W · A Al-Ittihad FC 1-2 L · H Al Taawon 2-1 W · A Al-Ettifaq 3-2 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 12 Sept19:00in 22h 15mnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 4 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | João Félix | from Chelsea | Transfer | 2025-07-28 |
| IN | Ângelo | from Chelsea | € 23M | 2024-09-02 |
| IN | Aymeric Laporte | from Manchester City | € 27.5M | 2023-08-24 |
| IN | Alex Telles | from Manchester United | € 7M | 2023-07-23 |
Team data: fresh · collected 1 h ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Al-Nassr play next?
Al-Nassr's next fixture in the snapshot is Al-Khaleej v Al-Nassr on Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 UK time (Saudi Pro League).