Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Al-Nassr — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming10 Results held
Model Strength
73
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
94.2%
Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
9th
of 18 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
10
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
GrosvenorForm
last 6WWWDWL
13 pts from 6
A
Al-Faisaly FC
3–1
+1.0
H
NEOM
1–0
+1.9
H
Al Diriyah
3–0
+1.8
A
Al Khaleej Saihat
1–1
-0.4
H
Abha
2–1
+1.8
A
Al-Ittihad FC
1–2
-1.7
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (10 matches)
Model expected (9 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+15.2 points against the model's expectation over the 9 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals conceded
0.8
#1 of 18
Points over model expectation
15.2
#2 of 18
Goals scored
2.3
#4 of 18
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
2.3
#4 of 18
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
0.8
#1 of 18
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
4
#8 of 18
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed41%
Scored before half time
of 17 goals
24%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 17 goals
6%
From the penalty spot
of 17 goals
13%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 8 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures
(25 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
SPL
No league table for this tie
Saudi Pro League is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely
Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Home ground: KSU Stadium gazetteer
Recorded form
WWWWWW
last 12: 1.92 scored / 1.08 conceded per game · Over 2.5 75% · BTTS 67% · clean sheets 25% (21 results held)
A Al-Faisaly FC 3-1 W · A Al-Faisaly KSA FC 3-1 W · H NEOM 1-0 W · H Neftchi 3-1 W · H Al Diriyah 3-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Thu 29 Oct18:00in 2dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 9 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | Aymeric Laporte | to Athletic Club | Transfer | 2025-09-10 |
| IN | Íñigo Martínez | from Barcelona | Free agent | 2025-08-08 |
| IN | João Félix | from Chelsea | Transfer | 2025-07-28 |
| IN | J. Durán | from Aston Villa | Transfer | 2025-01-31 |
| IN | Ângelo | from Chelsea | € 23M | 2024-09-02 |
| IN | Aymeric Laporte | from Manchester City | € 27.5M | 2023-08-24 |
| IN | Alex Telles | from Manchester United | € 7M | 2023-07-23 |
| OUT | Armando Lenín Wila Cangá | to Barcelona | 2015-07-01 | |
| IN | Armando Lenín Wila Cangá | from Barcelona | 2015-01-26 |
Team data: fresh · collected 2 h ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Al-Nassr play next?
Al-Nassr's next fixture in the snapshot is Al-Nassr v Al-Kholood on Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 UK time (Saudi Pro League).