Arouca

Primeira Liga - PortugalEstádio Municipal de Arouca

Next match Arouca v Nacional Sun 1 Nov, 15:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Arouca — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming9 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

14th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sun 1 Nov15:30

Nacional H — 1.88

Virgin Bet —

Form

last 6

WWDLDW 11 pts from 6

A Alverca 1–0 +1.6

H Estrela 1–0 +1.4

A Sporting CP 2–2 +0.2

H Santa Clara 1–2 -1.4

A Estoril 0–0 -0.1

H Maritimo 2–1 —

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (9 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+8.7 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 5 #3 of 18

Goals conceded 0.78 #4 of 18

Points over model expectation 8.7 #4 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.33 #9 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.78 #4 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 5 #3 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

43%

Scored before half time

of 7 goals

29%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 7 goals

14%

From the penalty spot

of 7 goals

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 6 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 9 stored fixtures (13 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

PRI Primeira Liga - Portugal 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Home ground: Estádio Municipal de Arouca gazetteer

Recorded form WWWWDD last 12: 1.33 scored / 1.17 conceded per game · Over 2.5 50% · BTTS 50% · clean sheets 42% (40 results held)

A Alverca 1-0 W · A CF Os Belenenses 4-3 W · H Estrela 1-0 W · H CF Estrela da Amadora 1-0 W · A Sporting CP 2-2 D

Upcoming fixtures

Sun 1 Nov15:30in 6d

Arouca Nacional
PRI

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 9 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
IN	L. Shahar	from Newcastle	Loan	2026-09-03
IN	Diogo Monteiro	from Leeds	Transfer	2025-08-10
IN	Pablo Gozálbez	from Valencia	Free	2024-07-01
IN	J. Opoku	from Fulham		2022-07-01
IN	Toni Gomes	from Liverpool		2018-07-01
IN	Jorginho	from Manchester City		2016-02-01
OUT	Cristian Ceballos	to Tottenham		2014-07-01
IN	Cristian Ceballos	from Tottenham	Loan	2013-09-02
IN	I. Balliu	from Barcelona	Free	2013-07-01

Team data: fresh · collected 20 h ago

Explore

Primeira Liga - Portugal Next: Arouca v Nacional Search Arouca matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Arouca play next?

Arouca's next fixture in the snapshot is Arouca v Nacional on Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 UK time (Primeira Liga - Portugal).